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 Footlocker Preview 2014

 

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Footlocker 2014 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating  for betting purposes
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Footlocker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... Other Ratings - other selected speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Footlocker Finals)

 

 BOYS Footlocker Preview Ratings
Name Gr School St Region Overall Rating Footlocker Region Rating FL Region Place State Meet Rating Selected Other Seasonal Ratings
Grant Fisher 12 Grand Blanc MI Midwest 198+ 198 1 198 Portage Invite (198) ... Jackson Invite (190)
Matthew Maton 12 Summit OR West 200+ 195 3 201 George Fox Invite (195) ... Oxford Invite (196)
Andrew Hunter 11 Loudoun Valley VA South 200+ 197 1 202 Great American Festival (196) ... Oatlands Invite (189) ... Great Meadows Invite (189)
Alex Ostberg 12 Darien CT Northeast 199+ 199 1 200 New England Champ (199) ... CT Class Champ (196) ... CT FIAC Champ (198) ... Manhattan Champ (201) ... Woods Trail Run (198)
John Dressel 12 Mt Spokane WA West 198+ 194 4 198 Stanford Invite (193)
Austin Tamagno 11 Brea Olinda CA West 197+ 193 6 190 CA South Sect Final (192) ... Orange Co Champ (190) ... Mt SAC Indiv Sweep (197 - Mt SAC record) ... Woodbridge Classic (190)
Conner Mantz 12 Sky View UT West 197+ ? 194 5 189 Bob Firman Invite (200)
Olin Hacker 12 Madison West WI Midwest 198 192 10 197 NXN Nationals (201) ... NXN Heartland (195) ... Roy Griak Invite (195)
Elijah Armstrong 12 Pocatello ID West 197 199 1 189 NXN Northwest (192) ... Clovis Invite (194) ... Bob Firman Invite (195) ... Sacony Scramble (190)
Trevor Reinhart 12 Marin Academy CA West 197 198 2 194 Stanford Invite (185)
Jesse Reiser 12 McHenry IL Midwest 196 195 3 192 NXN Nationals (196) ... NXN Midwest (194) ... Palatine Invite (187) ... First-to-the-Finish Invite (189)
Ben Veatch 11 Carmel IN Midwest 195 194 5 193 NXN Nationals (196) ... NXN Midwest (193) ... IN Semi-State (193) ... Trinity-Valkyrie Invite (187)
Thomas Pollard 12 Gilbert IA Midwest 194 193 6 193 Roy Griak Invite (195)
Levi Thomet 12 Kodiak AK West 194 189 7 195 NXN Northwest (194) ... George Fox Invite (194) ... Oxford Classic (196) ... Kodiak Invite (193)
Jesse Hersha 12 Concord MI Midwest 194 195 2 187 Mideast Champ (192) ... Portage Invite (184) ... Jackson Invite (182) ... MSU Spartan Invite (190)
Stuart McNutt 12 Blue Valley West KS Midwest 194 195 4 191 NXN Nationals (193) ... NXN Heartland (192) ... Rim Rock Classic (185) ... Southern Stampede MO (189)
Luke Petela 12 Haddon Township NJ Northeast 194 194 2 194 NJ Group Champ (190) ... NJ Shore Coaches Invite (181)
Jake Brophy 11 Central Bucks East PA Northeast 193 193 5 195 PA District 1 Champ (189)
Josh Collins 12 Wasatch UT West 193 189 8 193 NXN Southwest (193) ... Bob Firman Invite ID (191)
Seth Williams 12 Columbus North IN Midwest 192 193 7 191 NXN Midwest (190) ... Culver Invite (188)
Carter Blunt 11 Frisco Independence TX South 191 191 2 190 NXN Nationals (190) ... NXN South (191) ... Southlake Carroll Invite (186)
Zack Snider 12 Brebeuf Jesuit IN Midwest 191 192 9 193 NXN Nationals (182) ...NXN Midwest (191) ... IN Semi-State (187) ... Trinity-Valkyrie Invite (186)
Ari Klau 12 Hall CT Northeast 191 193 3 188 New England Champ (188) ... CT Class Champ (187) ... Wickham Park Invite (184) ... Manchester Invite (184)
Casey Comber 12 Hatboro-Horsham PA Northeast 191 193 4 187 PA District 1 Champ (187)
Benito Munoz 12 Carmel NY Northeast 191 192 6 190 NY State Class A (191) ... NY Section 1 Champ (187) ... Section One Coaches (186)
Jonathan Davis 11 Oakwood IL Midwest 190 192 8 189 Palatine Invite (180) ... Richard Spring Invite (182)
Ben Barrett 12 Norman North OK South 190 190 4 188 Chili Pepper Festival (187) ... Southern Stampede MO (189)
Eli Moskowitz 12 Souhegan Coop NH Northeast 190 192 7 183 New England Champ (183) ... Manchester Invite (188)
Jack Jibb 12 Monroe-Woodbury NY Northeast 190 190 9 157 NY Section 9 Champ (186) ... OCIAA Champ (187) ... Section One Coaches (191) ... Paul Short Invite (186)
Shawn Huthchison 12 Bishop Eustace NJ Northeast 190 190 10 193 NJ Group Champ (186) ... NJ Shore Coaches (179)
Zach Long 12 Grainger TN South 190 190 3 176 ----
Peter Seufer 12 E.C. Glass VA South 189 189 5 188 Great American Fest (180) ... adidas Challenge NC (179) ... Knights Crossing Invite (180)
Garek Bielaczyc 11 Salt Lake City East UT West 188 188 9 183 NXN Southwest (183) ... Nebo Invitational (189) ... Aggie Invite (182)
Alexander Rogers 12 New Braunfels TX South 188 186 10 188 NXN South (188) ... Southlake Carroll Invite (177)
Anteneh Girma 12 T.C. Williams VA South 188 189 6 182 Oatlands Invite (170)
Gannon Willcutts 11 Western Albemarle VA South 188 189 7 184 VSHL Group 3A West Champ (189)
Steven Cross 11 Merritt Island FL South 188 189 8 185 FSU Pre-State (186) ... flrunners.com Invite (186)
Nicholas Diaz 12 Miami Sunset FL South 188 189 9 178 FSU Pre-State (186)
Colin Burke 12 Bishop O'Dowd CA West 186 187 10 186 CIF-North Coast Finals (182) ... Clovis Invite (180) ... Stanford Invite (187)
Jeriqho Gadway 12 Plattsburgh NY Northeast 186 191 8 180 NY State Class C (183) ... NY Section 7 Champ (178) ... CVAC Champ (176) ... Burnt Hills Invite (176)
 

General Comment ... I expect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Footlocker Nationals will be higher than those shown in table above (that's almost always the case) ... To finish in top places at Footlocker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Footlocker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (season-best performances).

This field of guys is deeper and stronger at the top end than last year ... Nine of the top 16 finishers at last year's Footlocker return this year ... This could be a very competitive race ... Race strategy might be an important factor in determining the outcome ... Will somebody try to go out fast and try to steal the race?? ... Will it be tactical and come down to a sprint finish?? ... I tend to think the race may start moderately with several runners making major mid-race moves ... Should be interesting to see who responds and how well they respond ... The difference this year is that multiple guys are capable of making moves and multiple guys are capable of covering moves.

Individual Runners

Grant Fisher ... The defending National Footlocker Champion ... Undefeated this XC season following an excellent track season ... Won Footlocker Midwest handily with something in reserve ... And that makes Grant Fisher the favorite ...... Now that he has a chance to "run fast", it will be interesting to see how fast he runs ... I suspect he will stay near the lead and cover any moves made by the top contenders.

Matthew Maton ... Finished 3rd at Footlocker last year (entered the race as one of the favorites) ... Popped a big performance at Oregon States in breaking Galen Rupp's record ... Lightly raced this season with focus on winning Footlocker ... A serious contender for the win.

Andrew Hunter ... One of two juniors in the top group listed above ... Undefeated this season ... Popped a huge performance at the Virginia State Meet ... Won the Great American Race of Champions ... A serious contender for the win.

Alex Ostberg ... Finished 11th at Footlocker last year, but had a much improved XC season this year overall compared to last year ... Came close to equaling Ed Cheserek's course record at Van Cortland Park when winning the Manhattan Invite Championship race ... Won Footlocker Northeast handily (on Nov 29) ... Did not run until two days before Footlocker Northeast due to an injury following New England Championships (on Nov 8), which raises questions concerning fitness when competing against this caliber of runners ... But still a serious contender for the win.

John Dressel ... Finished 2nd to Grant Fisher at last year's Footlocker with a very good season-best performance ... Lightly raced this season with focus on winning Footlocker ... Was beaten by NXN Champion Tanner Anderson at Washington States ... A serious contender for the win.

Austin Tamagno ... Broke the Mt SAC course record as a junior with a really good solo effort ... Gave up the opportunity to compete at NXN in favor of Footlocker ... A serious contender for the win in his home State of California.

Conner Mantz ... Finished 7th at Footlocker last year and 12th the year before ... Beat NXN Champion Tanner Anderson at the Bob Firman Invitational (Sept 27) ... Finished 2nd at the Utah State Meet (Oct 22) while competing with nasty injury (stress reaction in his femur) and was noticeably hampered ... Finished 5th at Footlocker West (Dec 6) ... Would clearly be a serious contender for the win, but missed training time and the injury raise concerns.

Olin Hacker ... Finished an excellent 2nd at NXN Nationals (only 2 seconds behind Tanner Anderson) ... and that makes him a serious contender for the win ... I wonder how much that effort will affect his Footlocker performance?

Elijah Armstrong ... Finished 6th at Footlocker last year ... Qualified to compete at NXN Nationals in a snowy run at NXN Northwest, but decided to run Footlocker West instead (made the same decision last year) ... Won Footlocker West with a season-best performance, and that makes him a serious contender.

Trevor Reinhart ... Finished 12th at Footlocker last year ... Was 2nd at Footlocker West ... Had the 2nd fastest time-of-the-day at California States in winning the D5 championship.

Jesse Reiser ... Finished 33rd at Footlocker last year ... Finished a very decent 6th at NXN Nationals this year despite a reported sickness.

Thomas Pollard ... Finished 13th at Footlocker last year.

 

 

 

 GIRLS Footlocker Preview Ratings
Name Gr School St Region Overall Rating Footlocker Region Rating FL Region Place State Meet Rating Other Seasonal Ratings
Anna Rohrer 12 Mishawaka IN Midwest 159 159 1 154 Mideast Champ (152) ...
Ryen Frazier 12 Ravencroft NC South 159 160 1 --- Three Strip Invite (156) ... Great American Festival (143)  ... Dash For Doobie 3200m (10:12.29) ... JDL All-Comer Mile (4:44.20)
Brianna Schwartz 12 Shaler Area PA Northeast 156 154 1 152 WPIAL District 7 Champ (157) ... Slippery Rock Invite (152)
Makena Morley 12 Bigfork MT West 156 157 1 158 NXN Northwest (145) ... Capital City 7-of-7 (142) ... Bob Firman Invite ID (151) ... Mountain West Classic (148)
Hannah Debalsi 11 Staples CT Northeast 150+ 149 2 142 New England Champ (146) ... CT Class Champ (141) ... FCIAC Champ (143)
Paige Hofstad 11 New Braunfels TX South 154 153 2 151 NXN Nationals (156) ... NXN South (154) ... Nike South Invite (144)
Gabrielle Karas 10 Martha Layne Collins KY South 151 151 3 146 ----
Hannah Long 12 Eureka MO Midwest 151 146 6 147 Southern Stampede (154) ... Forest Park Festival (148)
Libby Davidson 10 E.C. Glass VA South 151 150 4 151 Great American Festival (149) ... adidas Challenge NC (146) ... Knights Crossing Invite (140)
Stephanie Jenks 11 Linn-Mar IA Midwest 149 147 5 --- NXN Nationals (145) ... NXN Heartland (152)
Annie Hill 9 Glacier MT West 149 144 4 145 NXN Northwest (148) ... Capital City 7-of-7 (150)  ... Mountain West Classic (151) ... Libby Invite (~140)
Lauren Gregory 10 Fort Collins CO West 149 149 2 147 NXN Southwest (149) ... Dave Sanders Invite (144) ... Liberty Bell Invite (144)
Maryjeanne Gilbert 11 Peoria Notre Dame IL Midwest 149 148 3 150 Peoria Invite (142) ... Richard Spring Invite (144)
Audrey Belf 12 Birmingham Seaholm MI Midwest 149 148 4 149 NXN Nationals (150) ... NXN Midwest (146) ... Jackson Invite (149) ... MSU Spartan Invite (143)
Sarah Kettel 11 Capital Home School MI Midwest 147 142 8 --- NXN Nationals (141) ... NXN Midwest (146) ... Portage Invite (135) ... MSU Spartan Invite (131) ... Yellow Jacket Invite (147) ... Laingsburg Early Invite (149)
Weini Kelati 9 Heritage VA South 147 148 5 142 Manhattan Invite Champ (146) ... Oatlands Invite (136)
Emma McMillan 11 Barrington RI Northeast 147 149 3 145 New England Champ (135) ... Woods Trail Run (138) ... Ocean State  Invite (122)
Madeleine Davison 11 North Allegany PA Northeast 147 148 4 146 WPIAL District 7 Champ (142) ... PIAA Foundation (141) ... Red-White-Blue Classic (141)
Caroline Pietrzyk 12 Malibu CA West 147 147 2 143 CIF Southern Section Finals (147) ... Ventura Co Champ (142) ... Mt SAC Invite (137) ... Woodbridge Classic (134)
Erin Dietz 12 Bedford MA Northeast 146 148 5 138 MIAA Eastern Champ (127)
Anna Flynn 11 Ursuline NY Northeast 145 147 6 141 NY State Class A (143) ... NY Section 1 Champ (138) ... Westchester Co Champ (130)
Elizabeth Lacy 12 Menlo-Atherton CA West 145 147 3 134 Stanford Invite (130)
Marissa Sheva 12 Pennridge PA Northeast 145 146 7 143 PIAA District 1 Champ (144) ... Paul Short Invite (140)
Kelsey Potts 11 Mt. Lebanon PA Northeast 144 146 8 142 WPIALChamp (130) ... Pittsburgh Central Cath (~137) ... PIAA Foundation (128) ... Red-White-Blue Classic (131)
Annie Frisbee 12 River Falls WI Midwest 144 144 7 138 NXN Nationals (142) ... NXN Heartland (144)
Bryn Morley 9 Big Fork MT West 143 142 6 149 NXN Northwest (143) ... Capital City 7-of-7 (143) ... Bob Firman Invite ID (142)  ... Mountain West Classic (142)
Ciara Donohue 12 Loudon Valley VA South 143 144 6 135 Oatlands Invite (121) ... Great Meadows Invite (125)
Kathleen Mansure 12 Watauga NC South 143 144 8 138 Wendy's Invite (138)
Emma Grace Hurley 11 Fellowship Christian GA South 143 144 7 126 ----
Toni Finnane 12 Campolindo CA West 142 143 5 142 CIF North Coast Section Final (138) ... Rough Rider Invite (138) ... Stanford Invite (133)
Amy Davis 12 Edgewood WI Midwest 142 141 9 143 ----
Claire Graces 10 Citrus Valley CA West 142 137 7 140 Mt SAC Invite (139) ... Clovis Invite (142) ... Woodbridge Classic (140) ... Great Cow Run (142)
Logan Morris 11 Spartanburg SC South 142 ? 143 9 --- ----
Gabrielle Richichi 12 New Fairfield CT Northeast 141 142 9 114 New England Champ (137) ... CT Class Champ (124) ... Ocean State Invite RI (135)
Abby Gray 11 Alamo Heights TX South 140 141 10 111 NXN Nationals (125) ... NXN South (139)
Eve Glasegreen 12 North Hunterdon NJ Northeast 140 140 10 138 NJ Group Champ (143) ... NJ Shore Coaches (137)
Morgan Florsheim 11 Shorewood WI Midwest 139 140 10 132 ---
Kimberly Coscia 12 South Torrance CA West 136 132 10 141 CIF Southern Section Finals (133) ... Mt SAC Invite (134) ... Clovis Invite (138) ... Woodbridge Classic (133) ... Great Cow Run (134)
Kendall Derry 11 Bella Vista CA West 135 135 8 133 Stanford Invite (125)
Grace Ling 12 Lynbrook CA West 133 133 9 131 Stanford Invite (123)
 

General Comment ... I will not be surprised if any of the top six girls listed above wins Footlocker 2014 ... I think Anna Rohrer should be considered the slight favorite because she won Footlocker 2012 impressively and she has been improving since returning to competition following another injury ... Anna Rohrer's performance at Footlocker Midwest was on par with her winning Footlocker Finals performance in 2012 ... Ryen Frazier's performance at Footlocker South could easily make her a co-favorite ... Brianna Schwartz is performing very similar to last year's winner (Tessa Barrett), so she could be a co-favorite ... Makena Morley won Footlocker West impressively ... Hannah Debalsi returns after finishing 2nd last year ... and Paige Hofstad finished 2nd at NXN Nationals.

Individual Runners

Anna Rohrer ... Started the season late recuperating from another injury (first XC race back was Oct 11th) ... Though cross-training, missed lots time from actual running ... Has been winning her races impressively and has been running continually faster ... Anna Rohrer won Footlocker 2012 and enters Footlocker 2014 as the slight favorite.

Ryen Frazier ... On Nov 8th, she won the Three Stripe Invitational at WakeMed NC with a 156 speed rating ... the following week (Nov 15th), Ryen won the Dash For Doobie 3200 meter track race in 10:12.26 ... and the next week (Nov 22), won an All-Comers Mile race in 4:44.20 ... And if that's not enough, Ryen won Footlocker South (Nov 29) with a highest female speed rating of the year (160) ... Typically, those combined performances would make Ryen Frazier the favorite to win Footlocker Finals ... But Anna Rohrer is a former Footlocker winner and seems to be running as good or better than ever ... Looks like a toss-up, but other contenders are right there as well.

Brianna Schwatrz ... Started her season a bit late to seemingly focus on Footlocker ... Brianna's performance record for the season reminds me of Tessa Barrett (last year's winner) ... Won Footlocker Northeast handily ... Brianna Schwatrz is a serious contender to win this race ... She finished 6th at Footlocker last year, and was in 20th-place with just under a mile to go.

Makena Morley ... Won Footlocker West handily ... Popped a huge performance at the Montana State Meet (did the same thing last year) ... Expect an all-out effort from this outstanding senior runner ... I believe her best performances come when she leads and controls the pace of the race  ... whether that happens with the quality of this field reminders to be seen ... Makena Morley finished 8th last year (but never got into contention during the race).

Hannah DeBalsi ... Finished an excellent 2nd to Tessa Barrett at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Hannah DeBalsi's overall performance record from last year's junior year (XC + track) is the best of this field ... However, this race will be decided on current fitness and ability ... Hannah started the XC season fairly late, but she won the New England Championship and Connecticut State Championship handily ... Finished 2nd at Footlocker Northeast with a less than all-out effort ... The question becomes "What is her performance level entering Footlocker 2014??" ... Answer - I do not know, it's a guess for the handicapper ... I suspect she will be very good, but good enough to win?? ... Entering Footlocker 2013, Hannah had shown some performance levels that indicated she was a contender for the win ... But that's not the case in 2014, and this year's field seems stronger at the top end ... BUT Hannah DeBalsi could be focusing the 2014 XC season on one big all-out effort at Footlocker Finals, and I think she is capable of winning ... She is very good at "following" top lead runners during a race and then moving up to contend for the win, and that could be important in this race.

Paige Hofstad ... Finished an excellent 2nd to Allie Ostrander at NXN Nationals (only 7 seconds behind the winner) ... Has run very well in recent races ... Her NXN National performance was impressive on the new NXN course (a seemingly strength-favoring course under the soft conditions) ... As a handicapper, I wonder how much that effort took-out of her when she has to travel and race against top competition again the following week.

Gabriella Karas ... Another runner with a late competition start this season ... I believe the late start was due to an ankle injury ... Won her State Meet race handily and raced very well at Footlocker South, so an even better performance at Footlocker Finals is very possible ... Finished 25th at Footlocker last year as a freshman ... Expect a better finish this year.

Hannah Long ... Was undefeated this season until Footlocker Midwest ... qualified easily with probably something in reserve for Nationals ... Popped a nice 154 speed rating earlier in the season and could be a surprise ... Finished 23rd last year, but she is better this season.

Stephanie Jenks ... Tri-athlete, swimmer ... Finished 9th at Footlockers last year after challenging Tessa Barrett on the front-end (tired some at the end to finish 9th) ... Finished 18th at NXN Nationals this year, but seemed to be struggling some on the soft turf ... I think she will fare better at Balboa Park.