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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2014

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 29, 2014

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 26, 2014 ....  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 29, 2014

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 8, 2014

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Link to NY Championship Race Entries - Club Names and Individuals ]

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     62     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       72
 2   Liverpool                96     (03-A )     St. Anthony's              88
 3   St. Anthony's            99     (CHSAA)     Liverpool                  96
 4   Pittsford Mendon        225     (05-B )     Corning                   193
 5   Xavier                  245     (CHSAA)     Ithaca                    212
 6   Guilderland             250     (02-A )     Pittsford Mendon          229
 7   East Aurora             265     (06-C )     East Aurora               245
 8   Corning                 267     (04-A )     Syosset                   274
 9   Fordham Prep            270     (CHSAA)     Guilderland               321
 10  Syosset                 285     (08-A )     Williamsville North       322
 11  Ithaca                  289     (04-A )     Mount Academy             326
 12  Collegiate              330     (AIS  )     Fordham                   332
 13  Mount Academy           350     (09-C )     Collegiate                344
 14  Williamsville North     390     (06-A )     Sweet Home                365
 15  Sweet Home              399     (06-B )     Commack                   409
 16  Commack                 418     (11-A )     Maine-Endwell             417
 17  John Jay CR             429     (01-B )     John Jay CR               419
 18  Webster Thomas          455     (05-A )     Carthage                  436
 19  Sachem East             462     (11-A )     Elmira District           470
 20  Carthage                478     (03-B )     Webster Thomas            474
 21  Elmira District         521     (04-A )     Sachem East               488
 22  Lancaster               546     (06-A )     Queensbury                573
 23  Maine-Endwell           566     (04-B )     Franklin Academy          617
 24  Franklin Acad           652     (10-B )     Lancaster                 650
 25  Queensbury              684     (02-B )
 26  Williamsville South     827     (06-B )

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool skipped the NY Federation Meet ... Fayetteville-Manlius can be considered the top ranked team in the nation currently and the favorite to win this race.

Liverpool and St. Anthony's seem basically even-up entering the NXN-NY regional, with possibly a very slight advantage going to Liverpool ... St. Anthony's won the NY Federation Meet with a very impressive performance and could easily be picked to finish second ... a big gap exists between 3rd and 4th.

I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will receive an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently.

Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last three years -  It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as a primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... I suspect that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.

Individual Race ... Most of the top ranked NY boys are racing at the NXN regional ... Bryce Millar (FM) is the favorite.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Bryce Millar          12   03-A    FM                     198       NXN Team
2   Mike Brannigan        12   11-A    Northport              196    (at Footlocker)
3   Ben Petrella          11   03-A    Liverpool              194       NXN Team
4   Kyle Barber           12   03-A    FM                     192       NXN Team
5   Peter Ryan            11   03-A    FM                     192       NXN Team
6   Kenny Vasbinder       11   06-C    East Aurora            192       NXN Team
7   Marco Pompilj         12   AIS     Collegiate             192       NXN Team
8   Aidan Tooker          11   02-A    Saratoga               191     NXN Individual
9   Dan Dracup            12   04-A    Ithaca                 190       NXN Team
10  Patrick Tucker        12   CHS     St. Anthonys           190       NXN Team
11  John Rice             12   CHS     Xavier                 190       NXN Team
12  Jeremy Spiezio        12   02-C    Greenwich              190     NXN Individual
13  Noah Affolder         10   03-B    Carthage               189       NXN Team
14  Tyler Italiano        12   08-A    Syosset                189       NXN Team
15  Benito Muniz          12   01-A    Carmel                 189    (at Footlocker)
16  Conor Lundy           11   CHS     Fordham Prep           189       NXN Team
17  Adam Hunt             12   03-A    FM                     188       NXN Team
18  Luke Gavigan          12   01-B    Tappan Zee             186     NXN Individual
19  Keith Baird           12   09-C    Mount Academy          186       NXN Team
20  Noah Carey            10   02-A    Guilderland            186       NXN Team
21  Kobie Lane            12   09-B    Port Jervis            186     NXN Individual
22  Jake Johnson          11   02-A    Colonie                185    (at Footlocker)
23  Nick Ciolkowski       12   05-A    McQuaid                185    (at Footlocker)
24  Zackaria Adam         12   03-A    Proctor                185        ------
25  Dan Schaffer          11   04-B    Maine-Endwell          185       NXN Team
26  Dylan McCarthy        12   03-A    Liverpool              184       NXN Team
27  Connor Buck           12   03-A    Liverpool              184       NXN Team
28  Joshua Hadity         12   11-A    Commack                184       NXN Team
29  Will Randall          12   03-A    West Genesee           182        ------
30  Pat Murphy            12   02-D    Duanesburg             182     NXN Individual
31  Daryn Hutchings       12   02-D    Argyle                 182     NXN Individual
32  Dan Muldoon           12   03-A    Liverpool              181       NXN Team
33  Joseph Prunty         12   CHS     Fordham Prep           181       NXN Team
34  Liam Burke            12   01-B    Tappan Zee             181     NXN Individual

 

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     37     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       34
 2   Saratoga                 98     (02-A )     Saratoga                   68
 3   Shenendehowa            109     (02-A )     Shenendehowa              102
 4   Suffern                 170     (01-A )     Suffern                   140
 5   Corning                 173     (04-A )     Elmira District           160
 6   Elmira District         179     (04-A )     Corning                   164
 7   Guilderland             180     (02-A )     East Aurora               218
 8   East Aurora             260     (06-C )     Sachem East               218
 9   North Shore             279     (08-B )     Guilderland               247
 10  Syosset                 289     (08-A )     Syosset                   281
 11  Sachem East             295     (11-A )     Westhill-Ludden           296
 12  Webster Thomas          303     (05-A )     Webster Thomas            299
 13  Sweet Home              338     (06-B )     John Jay CR               316
 14  Queensbury              342     (02-B )     Queensbury                327
 15  Notre Dame              352     (CHSAA)     Hackley                   328
 16  Westhill-Ludden         354     (03-C )
 17  John Jay CR             355     (01-B )
 18  Hackley                 383     (AIS  )
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race.

Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet by 23 points over Shenedehowa ... Saratoga beat Shenendehowa in a tie-breaker at sectionals, so this a reasonably close match-up for the second auto-qualifying position.

Suffern, Corning, Elmira and Guilderland are fairly close ... and all have shown the ability to score lower than the projection above ... Elmira upset Fayetteville-Manlius at the McQuaid Invitational (with Shenedehowa was only 4 points behind FM (but it was an off-performance by FM)) ... Elmira has been hurt by some injuries.

I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will receive an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently ... 4th-place will need to be very close to 2nd and 3rd-place ... Currently, the Palatine Illinois girls are a virtual lock to get one of the four "At-Large" bids.

Individual Race ... Most of the top ranked NY girls are racing at the NXN regional ... Bella Burda (Arlington) and Jessica Lawson (Corning) are the top-ranked runners.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Bella Burda           12   01-A    Arlington              152     NXN Individual
2   Jessica Lawson        10   04-A    Corning                151       NXN Team
3   Carly Benson          9    03-A    West Genesee           143    (at Footlocker)
4   Abbey Wheeler         11   04-A    Elmira District        142       NXN Team
5   Sophia Ryan           9    03-A    FM                     142       NXN Team
6   Anna Flynn            11   01-A    Ursuline               140    (entered both NXN & FL)
7   Samantha Levy         11   03-A    FM                     139       NXN Team
8   Annika Avery          12   03-A    FM                     138       NXN Team
9   Katherine Lee         9    11-B    Shoreham Wading R      137    (entered both NXN & FL)
10  Alex Cooper           12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         137       NXN Team
11  Jenna Farrell         11   03-A    FM                     136       NXN Team
12  Danielle Jordan       11   02-A    Shenendehowa           134       NXN Team
13  Sophia Tasselmyer     11   06-C    East Aurora            134       NXN Team
14  Olivia Ryan           12   03-A    FM                     133       NXN Team
15  Mary Hennelly         7    01-A    Suffern                133       NXN Team
16  Rachel Ludwikowski    10   01-A    Suffern                132       NXN Team
17  Spencer Hayes         12   02-A    Saratoga               132       NXN Team
18  Vicky Martinez        11   01-A    Fox Lane               132     NXN Individual
19  Peyton Engborg        9    02-A    Saratoga               132       NXN Team
20  Kathryn Munks         11   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        132        ------
21  Stephanie Gerland     11   08-B    Garden City            132     NXN Individual
22  Emily MacKay          11   04-B    Union-Endicott         132     NXN Individual
23  Maryanna Lansing      11   02-A    Shaker                 131        ------
24  Anna Kostarellis      10   05-B    Churchville-Chili      131     NXN Individual
25  Emily Burns           12   02-A    Guilderland            131       NXN Team
26  Emily Bini            7    02-A    Guilderland            131       NXN Team
27  Aileen Doyle          12   06-B    Sweet Home             130       NXN Team
28  Lisa Fajardo          12   CHS     Bishop Kearney         130    (at Footlocker)
29  Natalie Rogus         12   04-A    Corning                130       NXN Team
30  Julia Zachgo          10   02-A    Shenendehowa           130       NXN Team
31  Ella Ketchum          10   AIS     Poly Prep              130        ------
32  Alexandra DeCicco     11   11-A    Sachem East            130       NXN Team