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November 2, 2016 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2016 Section 3 Championships

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 2, 2016 ... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 6, 2016

  ...  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 6, 2016

 Boys Class A - Fayetteville-Manlius favored

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   48           Liverpool               35
  2   Liverpool              59           Fayetteville-Manlius    46
  3   Baldwinsville          65           Baldwinsville           69
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 115           Cicero-North Syracuse  131
  5   West Genesee          122           West Genesee           134
  6   Central Square        202           Central Square         194
  7   Auburn                223           Rome Free Academy      212
  8   Syracuse West         229           Syracuse West          237
  9   Rome                  244           Auburn                 238
  10  Proctor               317           Proctor                313
  11  Oswego                345           Syracuse East          340
  12  Syracuse East         346           Oswego                 346
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool and Baldwinsville at the CNYCL League Meet by 41-52-59 ... That makes Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite in this sectional championship race, but the projected scores show the race is very close.

Individual Race ... Looks like a good match-up between the top guys listed below ... Stephen Schulz and Ty Brownlow ran one-two at the CNYCL League Meet.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Stephen Schulz        12   03-A    Liverpool              188
2   Patrick Perry         12   03-A    FM                     186
3   Ty Brownlow           12   03-A    Liverpool              185
4   David Leff            12   03-A    West Genesee           181
5   Josh Hickmott         12   03-A    Liverpool              179
6   Davone Hernandez      12   03-A    Rome                   177
7   Ben Otis              11   03-A    FM                     174
8   Jack Boltman          12   03-A    FM                     169
9   Garrett Brennan       10   03-A    FM                     168
10  Evan Biedermann       12   03-A    Baldwinsville          167
11  Matthew Tripp         10   03-A    FM                     167
12  Cameron Morrissey     12   03-A    Baldwinsville          167
13  Nathan Poirier        10   03-A    CNS                    167
14  Solomon Lawrence      12   03-A    Syracuse West          167
15  Adam Davis            10   03-A    Baldwinsville          166
16  Joe Walters           12   03-A    FM                     166

 

 Boys Class B - New Hartford and Chittenango - Very Close

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   New Hartford           82           New Hartford            63
  2   Chittenango            85           Carthage               105
  3   Jamesville Dewitt     128           Chittenango            110
  4   Fulton                158           Jamesville Dewitt      130
  5   Carthage              169           Westhill-Ludden        150
  6   ESM                   172           VVS                    152
  7   VVS                   179           ESM                    154
  8   Westhill-Ludden       180           Homer                  207
  9   Homer                 181           Fulton                 233
  10  Phoenix               240           Phoenix                260
  11  Cortland              249           Whitesboro             295
  12  Whitesboro            317           Camden                 328
  13  Camden                342           Mexico                 368
  14  Watertown             395           Watertown              382
  15  Central Valley        403           Cortland               424
  16  Mexico                416           Central Valley         437
  17  Indian River          479           Indian River           473
  18  Oneida                486           Oneida                 479

Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford won the TVL League meet handily and then beat Chittenango by 45-54 at the Bernard-Adirondack Invite ... Chittenango lost a closely contested race at the OHSL Liberty League meet to Class C favorite Marcellus (49-53) ... Chittenango is racing on their home course, so I expected this race could be a toss-up.

Individual Race ... Patrick Dye and Josh Farmer are the top two rated guys ...

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Patrick Dye           12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      179
2   Josh Farmer           10   03-B    New Hartford           177
3   Nick Berg             9    03-B    ESM                    168
4   Kenneth Deloff        12   03-B    Fulton                 168
5   Owen Walker           11   03-B    VVS                    163
6   Brian Lamonica        12   03-B    Carthage               162
7   Grant Stokoe          11   03-B    Homer                  159
8   Jared Henry           12   03-B    ESM                    157
9   Mike Capeling         12   03-B    Chittenango            157
10  Ersilio Cerminero     10   03-B    Chittenango            153
11  Troy Henderson        12   03-B    New Hartford           152
12  Andy Ryan             10   03-B    Cortland               150
13  Garrett Jones         11   03-B    New Hartford           150
14  Karl Farber           11   03-B    Chittenango            149

 

 Boys Class C - Marcellus a solid favorite

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Marcellus              59           Marcellus               57
  2   Cazenovia             119           Clinton                 97
  3   Jordan-Elbridge       123           Cazenovia              138
  4   Clinton               133           Hannibal               138
  5   Hannibal              142           CBA                    139
  6   Holland Patent        146           Holland Patent         139
  7   Port Byron            163           Jordan-Elbridge        162
  8   CBA                   169           Port Byron             186
  9   Pulaski               229           Pulaski                220
  10  Adirondack            267           Skaneateles            228
  11  Skaneateles           299           South Jefferson        309
  12  South Jefferson       305           Adirondack             316
  13  Canastota             360           Canastota              351
  14  APW                   397           Solvay                 368
  15  Solvay                427

Pre-Race Analysis ... Marcellus won the OHSL Liberty meet handily and enters this Class C race as a very solid favorite ... Marcellus was also the top team in the merge at the recent Bernard-Adirondack Invite.

Individual Race ... Dominic Morganti is the favorite, but CJ Militello has raced well all season.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Dominic Morganti      12   03-C    CBA                    176
2   CJ Militello          12   03-C    Clinton                171
3   Adam Vanvalkenburgh   12   03-C    Canastota              159
4   Joe Riccardi          11   03-C    Marcellus              159
5   James McPherson       11   03-C    Cazenovia              157
6   Chris Celecki         12   03-C    Holland Patent         157
7   Matt Strempel         12   03-C    Marcellus              155
8   Michael Schumacher    10   03-C    Port Byron             154
9   Jon Marecek           11   03-C    Cazenovia              152
10  Tanner Ludwin         11   03-C    Holland Patent         152
11  Ethan Mosure          11   03-C    Marcellus              151

 

 Boys Class D -  Sauquoit Valley and Tully - Too Close to Call

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Sauquoit Valley        60           Sauquoit Valley         50 
  2   Tully                  61           Tully                   65 
  3   Beaver River           69           Beaver River            74 
  4   Oriskany              160           Oriskany               147 
  5   South Lewis           177           South Lewis            152 
  6   Weedsport             235           Weedsport              223 
  7   West Canada           291           Cooperstown            264 
  8   LaFayette             306           New York Mills         298 
  9   New York Mills        314           West Canada            311
  10  Cooperstown           325           Sandy Creek            312 
  11  Sandy Creek           354           LaFayette              318 
  12  Blessed Virgin Mary   365           Dolgeville             350 
  13  Remsen                373           Hamilton               355 
  14  Dolgeville            397           Cato-Meridian          363 
  15  Onondaga              456           Fabius-Pompey          370 
  16  Hamilton              457           Mount Markham          430 
  17  Cato-Meridian         470           Utica Notre Dame       442 
  18  Fabius-Pompey         470           Old Forge              461 
  19  Waterville            488           Deruyter               486 
  20  Old Forge             525           Herkimer               500 
  21  Mt. Markham           535           MPH                    519
  22  Herkimer              578
  23  Utica Notre Dame      588
  24  DeRuyter              622
  25  MPH                   653

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the defending Class D champion in Section 3 ... Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Conference Meet and then raced very well against much larger Queensbury at the Harvest Classic Invite (losing by only 46-50) ... Tully has been improving and won the OHSL Patriot Championship handily ... Beaver River is also capable of winning with a good performance ... This could be very close.

Individual Race ... Dylan Canarelli is the favorite to win the Class D race ... A bunch of guys have a shot at getting one of the five individual qualifying spots to States.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Dylan Canarelli       11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        176
2   Connor Demo           11   03-D    Beaver River           164
3   Dylan Durgan          12   03-D    South Lewis            160
4   Dan Bort              11   03-D    Tully                  158
5   Ryan Hanson           12   03-D    Tully                  155
6   Chris Larson          12   03-D    Bishop Grimes          155
7   Taylor Philpotts      11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        155
8   Joshua Seeberger      12   03-D    Dolgeville             154
9   Logan Carnicelli      11   03-D    Cato-Meridian          152
10  Erik Campeau          11   03-D    Beaver River           151
11  Jake Baisley          12   03-D    Dolgeville             151
12  Jason Phelps          12   03-D    Tully                  151
13  Cory Demo             8    03-D    Beaver River           148
14  Jake Link             11   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        146
15  Matt Moser            10   03-D    Beaver River           143

 

 Girls Class A -  Fayetteville-Manlius the odds-on favorite again

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   15           Fayetteville-Manlius   15
  2   West Genesee           71           West Genesee           67
  3   Liverpool              80           Liverpool              73
  4   Baldwinsville         101           Baldwinsville         110
  5   Cicero-North Syracuse 130           Cicero-North Syracuse 145
  6   Central Square        201           Rome                  187
  7   Rome                  202           Central Square        197
  8   Auburn                254           Proctor               245
  9   Proctor               263           Auburn                255
  10  Syracuse West         295           Syracuse West         277
  11  Oswego                311           Syracuse East         311
  12  Syracuse East         319
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius could score a perfect 15 again

West Genesee and Liverpool are not separated by much for the runner-up spot (potential implication for a Federation "at-large" bid).

Individual Race ... Looks like a "pick-em" amongst the Fayetteville-Manlius girls with Sophie Ryan and Claire Walters leading the way ... Looks like a good competition for the five individual qualifying spots for States.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Sophie Ryan           11   03-A    FM                     142
2   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     141
3   Palmer Madsen         11   03-A    FM                     137
4   Phoebe White          9    03-A    FM                     135
5   Rebecca Walters       11   03-A    FM                     131
6   Jenna Schulz          9    03-A    Liverpool              128
7   Carly Benson          11   03-A    West Genesee           125
8   Justus Holden-Betts   10   03-A    Baldwinsville          125
9   Madison Neuner        10   03-A    Liverpool              119
10  Mia Mitchell          9    03-A    West Genesee           119
11  Vanessa Eberhard      12   03-A    Liverpool              118
12  Emily Young           11   03-A    West Genesee           116
13  Marian Draper         11   03-A    Rome                   115
14  Reilly Madsen         12   03-A    FM                     114
15  Keita Peden           12   03-A    FM                     112
16  Annina Marullo        11   03-A    CNS                    112

 

 Girls Class B  -  Westhill-Ludden a slight favorite over Jamesville-Dewitt
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill-Ludden        46           Westhill-Ludden        41 
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      51           Jamesville-Dewitt      50 
  3   VVS                    99           VVS                   109 
  4   New Hartford          100           New Hartford          110 
  5   Camden                177           Camden                180 
  6   ESM                   235           ESM                   221 
  7   Whitesboro            241           Homer                 227 
  8   Cortland              248           Cortland              231 
  9   Chittenango           249           Carthage              233 
  10  Carthage              260           Whitesboro            252 
  11  Homer                 288           Central Valley        276 
  12  Central Valley        306           Chittenango           285 
  13  Phoenix               327           Phoenix               350 
  14  Oneida                349           Watertown             355 
  15  Watertown             405           Indian River          426 
  16  Fulton                432
  17  Indian River          512
  
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden is the defending Class B champion and they won the OHSL Liberty meet handily ... Last year was also a close match-up between Westhill-Ludden and Jamesville-Dewitt, and Westhill-Ludden won when Jamesville-Dewitt was the slight favorite ... Jamesville-Dewitt won this year's OHSL Freedom meet handily.

Individual Race ... Elizabeth Lucason has been racing very nicely is recent races and is a slight favorite to win ... However, Hannah Butler is very capable of winning this race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Elizabeth Lucason     7    03-B    Camden                 128
2   Hannah Butler         12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      125
3   Morgan Lucason        9    03-B    Camden                 110
4   Brianna Wilbur        12   03-B    New Hartford           110
5   Liz Kessler           9    03-B    Westhill-Ludden        110
6   Haylei Coolican       10   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        106
7   Sophia Vinciguerra    10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      99
8   Alaina Kenny          11   03-B    Westhill-Ludden        89
9   Kylie Nowicki         8    03-B    Westhill-Ludden        87
10  Allison Donnelly      10   03-B    VVS                    86
11  Piper Warren          11   03-B    Watertown              86
12  Abby Palin            10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      85
13  Megan Brown           11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      84
14  Mary Breckenridge     11   03-B    VVS                    84

 

 Girls Class C -  CBA favored

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   CBA                    65           CBA                    59
  2   Clinton                93           Clinton                66
  3   Cazenovia             104           Marcellus              84
  4   Marcellus             123           Cazenovia              92
  5   Port Byron            124           Skaneateles           137
  6   Jordan-Elbridge       138           Hannibal              139
  7   Skaneateles           146           Port Byron            149
  8   Hannibal              166           Jordan-Elbridge       191
  9   Adirondack            273           Adirondack            228
  10  APW                   281           South Jefferson       274
  11  South Jefferson       306           Holland Patent        299
  12  Canastota             327           Pulaski               323
  13  Pulaski               333
  14  Holland Patent        362

							

Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA beat Cazenovia at the OHSL Liberty Championships (61-92) and earns the favorite position.

Individual Race ... A close race at the top end as noted below ... Five girls have a legitimate shot a winning this race.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Eva Borton            10   03-C    Clinton                120
2   Emma Novak            12   03-C    Clinton                119
3   Meggie Hart           11   03-C    Cazenovia              117
4   Clara Rowles          10   03-C    Cazenovia              116
5   Julia Willcox         12   03-C    Skaneateles            110
6   Lea Kyle              9    03-C    CBA                    101
7   Cory Knox             10   03-C    CBA                    99
8   Brianna Karboski      12   03-C    APW                    93
9   Deja Jones            8    03-C    CBA                    93
10  Gabrielle Dewhurst    12   03-C    Clinton                93
11  Liliana Cushman       11   03-C    Marcellus              92
12  Hannah Yorkey         11   03-C    Port Byron             92

 

 Girls Class D -  South Lewis favored, but Beaver River is close
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   South Lewis            62           South Lewis            46
  2   Beaver River           74           Beaver River           59
  3   Tully                  90           Tully                  84
  4   New York Mills        109           New York Mills         98
  5   Sauquoit Valley       148           Sauquoit Valley       126
  6   LaFayette             188           Utica Notre Dame      185
  7   Cooperstown           233           Cooperstown           189
  8   Old Forge             237           LaFayette             189
  9   Utica Notre Dame      240           Cato-Meridian         274
  10  Poland                292           Onondaga              292
  11  Bishop Grimes         316           Weedsport             295
  12  Cato-Meridian         331           Sandy Creek           306
  13  Onondaga              334           Bishop Grimes         319
  14  Weedsport             355           Herkimer              388
  15  Sandy Creek           369
  16  DeRuyter              446
  17  Herkimer              459
  18  Remsen                471

				

Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Frontier League Championship by a narrow margin (27-33) ... South Lewis is the favorite, but this race is close ... Tully has been improving recently and has closed the gap on the top two by more than expected - a bit more improvement and "less than good races" by the top two could make this interesting ... Tully is the defending champion.

New York Mills beat Sauquoit Valley at the CSC Conference Championship (49-71).

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Brooke Rauber         8    03-D    Tully                  135
2   Abbey Copperwheat     10   03-D    New York Mills         112
3   Sarah Sharpe          10   03-D    New York Mills         111
4   Hannah Ielfield       8    03-D    South Lewis            109
5   Hali Ielfield         11   03-D    South Lewis            107
6   Lexi Bernard          7    03-D    South Lewis            103
7   Rylee Campeau         10   03-D    Beaver River           102
8   Marissa Evans         9    03-D    LaFayette              95
9   Alison Carr           10   03-D    Tully                  90
10  Taylor Moore          10   03-D    Beaver River           90
11  Maggie Keady-Dooley   10   03-D    Utica Notre Dame       89
12  Laura Levi            11   03-D    Old Forge              85
13  Shauna Rice           10   03-D    Beaver River           85
14  Lauren Laruffa        11   03-D    Hamilton               82
15  Lauren Yonko          8    03-D    Tully                  77